As the U.S. prepares for its 2024 presidential election, questions about foreign influence and preferences have resurfaced, particularly in the context of China. Beijing has long been a key player in international geopolitics, and its relationship with the U.S. is a focal point for both governments. However, determining who China’s President Xi Jinping might favor in the upcoming election involves a nuanced understanding of Beijing’s interests and its complex relationship with the U.S.
China’s Strategic Interests
From a broad perspective, China’s leadership is less concerned with individual candidates and more focused on which policies will align with its long-term strategic goals. Beijing’s primary interests in U.S. politics include:
- Economic Stability: As two of the world’s largest economies, the U.S. and China are deeply intertwined. Beijing seeks a stable economic relationship with Washington, hoping to avoid trade wars or disruptions to global supply chains. A candidate who leans toward protectionism or economic decoupling could be viewed unfavorably.
- Bilateral Relations: U.S.-China relations have been strained under both recent Republican and Democratic administrations, particularly over issues like trade, Taiwan, human rights, and technology. While China’s leadership may seek a candidate who promises better diplomatic engagement, the likelihood of a “softening” stance is slim regardless of who wins.
- Taiwan and Regional Security: One of Beijing’s most significant concerns is Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway province. Candidates who take a hardline approach on defending Taiwan’s autonomy or increasing military support for the island are likely to face resistance from China’s leadership.
- Technological Competition: The ongoing competition over technological dominance, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G networks, will also influence China’s perception of U.S. candidates. Beijing is wary of policies aimed at restricting its access to advanced technology or containing its technological advancements.
Republican vs. Democratic Approaches
In recent years, U.S. policy toward China has become increasingly bipartisan, with both Republicans and Democrats expressing concerns over China’s rise and taking a firmer stance on key issues.
- Republican Candidates: Many Republican candidates, especially frontrunner Donald Trump, have adopted a tough-on-China stance, focusing on tariffs, trade restrictions, and military preparedness in the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s first term was marked by a trade war with China, and he has indicated that his second term would likely involve similar or even tougher measures.While this approach may put economic pressure on China, it could also be viewed as damaging to the global economy, something Beijing is keen to avoid. A Republican administration might also take a more hawkish stance on Taiwan, further intensifying regional tensions.
- Democratic Candidates: President Joe Biden has largely maintained a firm stance on China but has also emphasized the importance of multilateralism and rebuilding alliances. His administration has implemented policies aimed at countering China’s influence, particularly in technology and human rights, while seeking cooperation on global challenges like climate change.From Beijing’s perspective, Biden represents both a challenge and an opportunity. While his administration has not eased many of the restrictions imposed during the Trump era, there is a sense that a Democratic administration might allow for more diplomatic channels to remain open.
Beijing’s Likely Calculus
Given the bipartisan consensus on China policy in the U.S., it is unlikely that Beijing has a clear preference for either candidate. Instead, Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership may focus on how to navigate the challenges posed by either administration. Beijing’s key objective is to minimize disruption to its economic goals while maintaining its political and regional ambitions, particularly with regard to Taiwan.
Rather than overtly favoring one candidate, China may adopt a wait-and-see approach, ready to adjust its policies based on the outcome of the election. It is likely that Beijing will prioritize stability and the avoidance of further economic decoupling, regardless of who occupies the White House.
Conclusion
China’s leadership under Xi Jinping may not openly express a preference for the 2024 U.S. election, but its strategic priorities suggest that Beijing will be closely watching for signals about U.S. policy on trade, Taiwan, and technology. Whether a Republican or Democrat wins, the future of U.S.-China relations will be shaped by the broader geopolitical environment and the policies that follow, rather than any individual candidate’s personality. For now, China’s focus remains on ensuring that its global ambitions can withstand the challenges posed by whichever U.S. administration comes next.
