Xavier Driencourt, a seasoned diplomat who served as the French ambassador to Malaysia and Algeria, offers valuable insights into Emmanuel Macron’s persistent pursuit of reconciliation with Algeria. Driencourt has an extensive background in foreign affairs, having held significant positions within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is also a renowned author, shedding light on various aspects of French diplomacy.
Macron’s unwavering commitment to Algeria, despite strained relations with Morocco, is driven by a desire to achieve what his predecessors could not—an elusive Treaty of Friendship, akin to de Gaulle’s achievement with Germany. This ambitious diplomatic success would symbolize a triumph over history, allowing France to finally heal the wounds of its painful colonial past in North Africa, even after 62 years of decolonization.
On the Algerian side, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, supported by the military since 2019, also seeks a resounding political victory to secure his re-election for a second term in 2024. As the lone survivor of the Bouteflika era, Tebboune recognizes that unwavering support from the National People’s Army (ANP) is crucial for his legitimacy. Hence, both leaders are heavily invested in making significant diplomatic gestures.
However, a critical flaw lies in this approach: the heavy reliance on Tebboune as the linchpin of the Algerian bet. It assumes his continued presidency and unwavering military backing. But what if the army were to change its allegiance and withdraw support? France would find itself in a precarious situation, having placed all its hopes in one basket, risking the loss of anticipated benefits. This scenario would entail starting from scratch and transforming the bet into a potential trap. France would not only lose the friendship of Morocco but also face setbacks in its relationship with Algeria.
It is noteworthy that Macron acknowledged in October 2021 that the challenge lies in the “political-military system” surrounding Tebboune, rather than solely with the president himself. This realization underscores the need for a pragmatic approach, recognizing that international relations extend beyond personal connections and warm rapport.
To navigate the intricate web of French-Algerian relations, Macron should prioritize lucidity, foresight, and tactical acumen. A comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics at play is vital to avoid overreliance on individual leaders and to adopt a more realistic and pragmatic stance in the international arena.
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